渡辺 努

渡辺 努

教員名 / 職名

渡辺 努 WATANABE, Tsutomu / 教授

教員個人ホームページ

教員個人ページへ別ウィンドウで開く

E-mail

watanabe[at]e.u-tokyo.ac.jp
※[at]を@(半角)に置き換えてください

略歴

昭和57年3月 東京大学経済学部経済学科卒業
昭和57年4月 日本銀行(営業局,信用機構局,調査統計局)
平成4年3月 ハーバード大学 Ph.D.(経済学専攻)
平成11年4月 一橋大学経済研究所助教授
平成14年1月 同 教授
平成23年10月 東京大学大学院経済学研究科教授

現在の研究分野

マクロ経済学、国際金融、企業金融

研究課題

私の主要な研究テーマは「物価」と「金融政策」である。「物価」については、POSデータやオンライン価格データなどのミクロ価格データを用いて価格硬直性の原因を解明する研究や、わが国の長期デフレの原因を解明する研究を行ってきた。金融政策については、金利が負にはならないという制約の下での最適な金融政策について研究を行い、フォワードガイダンス型の政策運営を提案するなどの成果を挙げた。目下の関心は中央銀行と市場のコミュニケーションの実証分析である。

研究業績

論文 - 2010年以降

  • Trade Clustering and Power Laws in Financial Markets (with M. Nirei, J. Stachurski) Theoretical Economics, Volume 15, Number 4, November 2020, 1365-1398.
  • Japan's Voluntary Lockdown (with Tomoyoshi Yabu) Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers, Issue 46, 1-31, 1 September 2020, CEPR Press.
  • Online Consumption During the COVID-19 Crisis: Evidence from Japan (with Y. Omori) Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers, Issue 32, 208-241, 26 June 2020, CEPR Press.
  • The Formation of Consumer Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from Japan's Deflation Experience (with J. Diamond, K. Watanabe) International Economic Review, Volume 61, Issue 1, 241-281, February 2020.  https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12423
  • Property Price Index: Theory and Practice (with E. Diewert, K. G. Nishimura, C. Shimizu) Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, Vol. 11, Springer, January 2020. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-55942-9
  • House Price Dispersion in Boom-Bust Cycles: Evidence from Tokyo (with T. Ohnishi, T. Mizuno) Japanese Economic Review, 71(4), 511-539, October 2020. First Online: 10 December 2019. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42973-019-00019-6  
  • Detecting stock market bubbles based on the cross-sectional dispersion of stock prices (with T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi) In: Sato H., Iwanaga S., Ishii A. (eds) Proceedings of the 23rd Asia Pacific Symposium on Intelligent and Evolutionary Systems. IES 2019. Proceedings in Adaptation, Learning and Optimization, vol 12. Springer, Cham. First Online: 05 December 2019.
  • Product Turnover and the Cost of Living Index: Quality vs. Fashion Effects (with K. Ueda, K. Watanabe) American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 11(2), 310-347, April 2019.
  • Working Less and Bargain Hunting More: Macro Implications of Sales during Japan's Lost Decades (with K. Watanabe, K. Ueda, N. Sudo) Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 50, Issue 2-3, 449-478, March-April 2018. First published: 25 March 2018 https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12467
  • Why Has Japan Failed to Escape from Deflation? (with K. Watanabe) Asian Economic Policy Review, Vol. 13, No, 1, Jan 2018, 23-41.
  • Novel and Topical Business News and Their Impacts on Stock Market Activity (with T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi)  EPJ Data Science (2017) 6: 26. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-017-0123-7
  • The Gradual Evolution of Buyer-Seller Networks and Their Role in Aggregate Fluctuations (with R. Hisano, T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi, D. Sornette) Applied Network Science, 2017 2:9 Published on: 25 May 2017.
  • Dependence of the Decay Rate of Firm Activity on Firm Age  (with A. Ishikawa, S. Fujimoto, T. Mizuno) Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Volume 14, Issue 2, 351–362, December 2017.
  • Relationship between Population Density and Migration (with S. Fujimoto, T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi, C. Shimizu) Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Volume 14, Issue 1, 117-130, June 2017.
  • “Transition Law of Firms' Activity and the Deficit Aspect of Non-Gibrat's Law,” (with A. Ishikawa, S. Fujimoto, T. Mizuno) JPS Conference Proceedings 16, 011005, 2017
  • Who Buys What and Where: Reconstruction of International Trade Flows by Commodity and Industry (with Y. Ikeda) In: Cherifi H., Gaito S., Quattrociocchi W., Sala A. (eds) Complex Networks & Their Applications V: Proceedings of the 5th International Workshop on Complex Networks and their Applications. Studies in Computational Intelligence, vol 693, Springer, 657-670, 2016.
  • Power Laws in Market Capitalization During the Dot-com and Shanghai Bubble Periods (with T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi) Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Volume 13, Issue 2, 445-454, December 2016.
  • Long-term Firm Growth Properties Derived From Short-term Laws of Sales and the Number of Employees (with A. Ishikawa, S. Fujimoto, T. Mizuno) Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Volume 13, Issue 2, 409-422, December 2016.
  • Community structure and dynamics of the industry sector-specific international-trade-network (with Y. Ikeda, H. Iyetomi, T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi) in Signal-Image Technology and Internet-Based Systems (SITIS), 2014, 456-461.
  • How Much Do Official Price Indexes Tell Us about Inflation? (with J. Handbury, D. E. Weinstein) NBER Working Paper No.19504, October 2013. Revised December 2015.
  • House Prices at Different Stages of the Buying/Selling Process (with C. Shimizu, K. G. Nishimura) Regional Science and Urban Economics, Volume 59, July 2016, Pages 37-53.
  • Structure of Global Buyer-Supplier Networks and Its Implications for Conflict Minerals Regulations (with T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi) EPJ Data Science, 5 1 (2016) 2 Published online: 16 January 2016 DOI: 10.1140/epjds/s13688-016-0063-7
  • Firm Growth and Extended Gibrat's Law (with A. Ishikawa, S. Fujimoto, T. Mizuno) Advances in Mathematical Physics, vol. 2016, Article ID 9303480, 6 pages, 2016. doi:10.1155/2016/9303480.. 
  • Firm Age Distributions and the Decay Rate of Firm Activities (with A. Ishikawa, S. Fujimoto, T. Mizuno) Proceedings of the International Conference on Social Modeling and Simulation, 2015, Springer, 187-194.
  • The Structure of Global Inter-firm Networks (with T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi)  In: Aiello L., McFarland D. (eds) Social Informatics. SocInfo 2014. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 8852. Springer, Cham, 28 February 2015, 334-338.
  • Geographic Dependency of Population Distributions (with S. Fujimoto, T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi, C. Shimizu) Proceedings of the International Conference on Social Modeling and Simulation, 2015, Springer, 151-162.
  • Relationship between Job Opportunities and Economic Environments: Evidence from Online Job Search Data (with A. Sato, C. Shimizu, T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi) Procedia Computer Science, Volume 60, 2015, 1255-1262.
  • Relationship between Firm Age Distributions and the Decay Rate of Firm Activities in the United States and Japan (with A Ishikawa, S. Fujimoto, T Mizuno) Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Big Data, Santa Clara, CA, 2015, pp. 2726-2731. doi: 10.1109/BigData.2015.7364073
  • Are Firms that Are Awarded More Patents More Productive? (with S. Fujimoto, A. Ishikawa, T. Mizuno) In Abergel, F., Aoyama, H., Chakrabarti, B. K., Chakraborti, A., & Ghosh, A. (eds.) Econophysics and Data Driven Modelling of Market Dynamics, Springer, February 2015, 129-142.
  • Estimating Quality Adjusted Commercial Property Price Indexes Using Japanese REIT Data (with C. Shimizu, W. E. Diewert, K. G. Nishimura) Journal of Property Research, Volume 32, Issue 3, 2015. Published online: 20 Jul 2015.
  • The Economics of Interfirm Networks (edited with I. Uesugi, A. Ono) Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, Vol. 4, Springer, June 2015.
  • Buyer-Supplier Networks and Aggregate Volatility (with T. Mizuno, W. Souma)  in T. Watanabe, I. Uesugi, A. Ono, eds., The Economics of Interfirm Networks, Springer, June 2015.
  • Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data (with Y. Saita, C. Shimizu) International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Vol. 9 Issue 1, 2016, 66-87.
  • The Structure and Evolution of Buyer-Supplier Networks (with T. Mizuno, W. Souma) PLoS ONE 9(7): e100712. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0100712Published: July 07, 2014.
  • Analytical Derivation of Power Laws in Firm Size Variables from Gibrat's Law and Quasi-Inversion Symmetry: A Geomorphological Approach (with A. Ishikawa, S. Fujimoto, T. Mizuno) Journal of the Physical Society of Japan, Vol. 83, No. 3, 034802. Published online February 18, 2014.
  • Japan's Persistent Deflation and Monetary Policy: Editors' Overview. (with T. Ito, K. Iwata, C. McKenzie, S. Urata) Asian Economic Policy Review, Volume 9, Issue 1, 2014, 1–19.
  • Product Downsizing and Hidden Price Increases: Evidence from Japan's Deflationary Period (with S. Imai), Asian Economic Policy Review, Volume 9, Issue 1, 2014, 69-89.
  • A Stochastic Model for Order Book Dynamics in Online Product Markets (with T. Mizuno, M. Nirei) Evolutionary and Institutional Economic Review, VOL.10, NO.1, 2013, 93-105. Published 4 September 2013.
  • Why Are Product Prices in Online Markets Not Converging? (with T. Mizuno) PLoS ONE 8(8): e72211. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0072211. Published 28 August 2013.
  • High Quality Topic Extraction from Business News Explains Abnormal Financial Market Volatility (with R. Hisano, D. Sornette, T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi) PLoS ONE 8(6): e64846. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0064846. Published 6 June 2013.
  • The Emergence of Different Tail Exponents in the Distributions of Firm Size Variables (with A. Ishikawa, S. Fujimoto, T. Mizuno) Physica A, Volume 392, Issue 9, 1 May 2013, 2104–2113.
  • The Great Intervention and Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience 2003-2004 (with T. Yabu) Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 32, February 2013, 428-443.
  • A New Method for Identifying the Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions (with C. Chen, T. Yabu) Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 44, Issue 8, December 2012, 1507-1533.
  • Power Laws in Real Estate Prices during Bubble Periods (with T. Ohnishi, T. Mizuno, C. Shimizu) International Journal of Modern Physics: Conference Series, Vol. 16, No. 1, 2012, 61-81.
  • Random Walk or A Run: Market Microstructure Analysis of Foreign Exchange Rate Movements Based on Conditional Probability (with Y. Hashimoto, T. Ito, T. Ohnishi, M. Takayasu, H. Takayasu) Quantitative Finance, Vol. 12, No. 6, June 2012, 893-905.
  • Temporal and Cross Correlations in Business News (with T. Mizuno, T. Ohnishi, K. Takei) Progress of Theoretical Physics Supplement, No. 194, June 2012, 181-192.
  • House Prices from Magazines, Realtors, and the Land Registry (with C. Shimizu, K. G. Nishimura) in Property Markets and Financial Stability, BIS Papers No.64, Bank for International Settlements, March 2012, 29-38.
  • Power Laws in Firm Productivity (with T. Mizuno, A. Ishikawa, S. Fujimoto)  Progress of Theoretical Physics Supplement, No. 194, June 2012, 122-134.
  • On the Nonstationarity of the Exchange Rate Process (with T. Ohnishi, H. Takayasu, T. Ito, Y. Hashimoto, M. Takayasu)  International Review of Financial Analysis, Volume 23, June 2012, 30-34.
  • Fiscal Policy Switching in Japan, the US, and the UK (with A. Ito, T. Yabu)  Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Volume 25, Issue 4, December 2011, 380-413.
  • A New Method for Measuring Tail Exponents of Firm Size Distributions (with S. Fujimoto, A. Ishikawa, T. Mizuno)  Economics E-Journal, Vol. 5, 2011-20, December 7, 2011.
  • Closely Competing Firms and Price Adjustment: Some Findings from an Online Marketplace  (with T. Mizuno, M. Nirei) Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Volume 112, Issue 4, December 2010, 673-696.
  • “Collective Purchase Behavior toward Retail Price Changes,” (with H. Ueno, H. Takayasu, and M. Takayasu) Physica A, Volume 390, Issue 3, February 2011, 499-504.   
  • “Housing Prices in Tokyo: A Comparison of Hedonic and Repeat-Sales Measures,” (with C. Shimizu and K. G. Nishimura) Journal of Economics and Statistics, Volume 230, Issue 6, Special issue on “Index Theory and Price Statistics” edited by Erwin Diewert and Peter von der Lippe, December 2010, 792-813.
  • “Firm Age and the Evolution of Borrowing Costs: Evidence from Japanese Small Firms,” (with K. Sakai and I. Uesugi) Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 34, No.8, August 2010, 1970–1981.
  • “Residential Rents and Price Rigidity: Micro Structure and Macro Consequences,” (with C. Shimizu and K. G. Nishimura) Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Volume 24, Issue 2, June 2010, 282-299.
  • “A Statistical Analysis of Product Prices in Online Markets,” (with T. Mizuno) European Physical Journal B, Vol. 76, No. 4, August 2010, 501-506.
  • “The Bursting of Housing Bubble as Jamming Phase Transition,” (with K. Nishinari, M. Iwamura, Y. Saito) Journal of Physics: Conference Series, Volume 221, 012006, June 25, 2010.
  • “The Firm as a Bundle of Barcodes,” (with K. Sakai) European Physical Journal B, Vol. 76, No. 4, August 2010, 507-512.
  • “Life-span Distributions of Supermarket Products,” (with H. Ueno, M. Takayasu) Journal of Physics: Conference Series, Volume 221, 012018, June 25, 2010.

学会活動・受賞等

所属学会

  • 日本経済学会
  • Associate Editor, International Journal of Central Banking, 2006年-現在
  • Editor, Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 2008年-2010年
  • 「経済研究」(一橋大学経済研究所)編集主任,2006年-2008年
  • 「経済分析」(内閣府経済社会総合研究所)編集委員,2009年-2011年

科学研究費・各種のプロジェクトによる研究

  • 日本学術振興会・科学研究費補助金 基盤研究(S) 『対話型中央銀行制度の設計』      2018年-2023年,交付金額144,500千円 研究代表者  http://www.centralbank.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
  • 日本学術振興会・科学研究費補助金 基盤研究(S) 『長期デフレの解明』     2012年-2017年,交付金額152,000千円  研究代表者     http://www.price.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
  • 文部科学省・日本学術振興会委託 近未来の課題解決を目指した実証的社会科学研究推進事業    『持続的成長を可能にする産業・金融ネットワークの設計』     2008年-2013年,交付金額107,400千円  研究代表者  http://www2.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/ifn/
  • 日本学術振興会・科学研究費補助金 学術創成研究    『日本経済の物価変動ダイナミクスの解明: ミクロとマクロの総合アプローチ』 2006年-2011年,交付金額318,200千円 研究代表者     http://www.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/~ifd/

その他

  • 特許第6395307号(P6395307)「物価指数推定装置、物価指数推定プログラム及び方法」(出願番号: 2014-231511,公開番号: 2016-095681,登録番号: 6395307)出願日2014/11/14,公知日2016/05/26,登録日2018/09/07.出願人:国立大学法人東京大学,発明者:渡辺努,渡辺広太.