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NISHIMURA, Kiyohiko G.  
Office E-mail
Faculty of Economics,
The University of Tokyo,
7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-0033
Research Field
(1) Post-Crisis Central Bank Policy – from the (Former) Practitioner’s Perspective
(2) Non-Traditional Formulation of Behavior under Uncertainty and Its Practical Applications
(3) Property Prices and Macroeconomics
Research Theme
(1) Post-Crisis Central Bank Policy –from the (Former) Practitioner’s Perspective
The market microstructure has been largely taken as given in the mainstream discussion of central bank policy in the traditional macroeconomics.  However, the past several years' severe economic slowdown after the Global Financial Crisis (and Japan's past two decades' stagnation) amply testified that changes unnoticed in this microstructure greatly influenced the behavior and performance of both domestic and global financial markets and thus economic activity.  The purpose of this research is to discern the problems in the market microstructure and then to prespcribe effective central bank policy, from the perspective of a (former) practitioner.

(2) Non-Traditional Formulation of Behavior under Uncertainty and Its Practical Applications
In this research, firstly, fundamental uncertainty (a là Frank Knight) is formulated as a decision problem with multiple priors and secondly, its practical importance is examined in (1) search, (2) option pricing and (3) portfolio choice.  Behavioral implications are shown to be drastically different between traditional risks and fundamental uncertainty. Thirdly, it is shown that, in forecasting the future, if experts are not symmetric in his aversion between positive and negative surprise, then their forecast of the future is systematically biased. This may pose a serious problem in the society like ours which depends heavily on experts' forecasts such as Rating Agencies.

(3) Property Prices and Macroeconomics
The Global Financial Crisis was triggered by property booms in the United States and other countries.  Thus, much attention has been focused on the relationship between property prices and economic activities.  This research has two parts.  Firstly, it contributes to the international attempts to have internationally comparable property price indexes and/or indicators, which should be the foundation of sound economic policy.  Special emphasis is on the timeliness of data, since this is of utmost importance in monetary policy.  Second, the research explores dynamic and complicated relationship between property prices and economic activities.  Special emphasis on the effect of demographic compositional changes called population ageing.